One thought on “Panel Survey Evidence on the Consistency of Vote Choice Recall

  1. […] In sum, several pieces of evidence point to differential partisan nonresponse bias as a key shaper of prominent survey outcomes like vote choice. At the simplest level, the partisan composition of a poll’s sample matters a lot for politicized outcomes that are heavily correlated with partisanship. But most pollsters shy away from addressing these issues, as–perhaps most importantly–there’s not straightforward weight for “partisan composition.” Partisanship as a variable is very stable at an individual and aggregate level, but can still vacillate, and no clear benchmark for it exists. Consequently, most pollsters seem to frown upon this weighting option. Weighting to vote choice–for which there’s a known distribution, the margin in the most recent election–represents another option. But given that most pollsters don’t use longitudinal panels, they’d have to rely on recalled vote choice, which is often not viewed positively–people may forget their past vote or recall it in a biased manner (though I’d argue this is a flawed common belief, as the best available data suggests recall is very accurate). […]

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