2020 Election Changes in Turnout along Vote Choice Distribution at County Level

More here.

Edit 11/17/20:

I caught a small error in the data going into the above graphs. The variable I thought was total votes cast in a county in 2020 did not actually equal the sum of all individual candidate votes (there’s no codebook or anything similar to check this). Fortunately, these two total votes variables were almost identical (correlated at > 0.999) so this didn’t change the overall trend in results (two outlier ratio values no longer remained in the data and so the y-axis span changes). I reproduce the above graphs with the correct measure, along with updated voting data, below.

Edit 11/19/20: Here’s another graph looking at how turnout and vote correlate at the county level, but this time measuring both in terms of changes from 2016 to 2020.

2020 Election Changes in Turnout along Vote Choice Distribution at County Level

3 thoughts on “2020 Election Changes in Turnout along Vote Choice Distribution at County Level

  1. Alexander Woodle says:

    Hi Alex,

    You probably do not remember me. I am a friend of Mom and Dad’s who lives near Boston.You were pretty young when we met.

    I have a question about turnout in Georgia. I don’t know what kind of data is available, but I am curious if there is more capacity for an increase in Black turnout for Senate runoff elections?

    Alex Woodle

    On Mon, Nov 16, 2020 at 3:29 AM Agadjanian Politics wrote:

    > Alexander Agadjanian posted: ” More here. ” >

    Like

    1. Hi Alex,

      I don’t remember but I asked my parents and they gave me the background – nice to hear from you! And thanks for the question, it’s a good one. An analysis in the New York Times today actually highlights this exact point here. The link to the piece is here (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/17/upshot/georgia-precinct-shift-suburbs.html), and here’s the relevant part:

      “But the relatively low Black share of the electorate could mean that Democrats have the potential for a better showing, perhaps even in the two Senate runoffs in January.”

      That sounds right to me too. Black voters did not see as large of a turnout jump as white voters did during the regular election earlier this month — but that also means there’s potentially more room for them to grow their turnout levels during the runoff.

      Alexander

      Like

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