Update on Trends in Intra-Party Support

Having now emerged from the most important juncture–the party conventions–in the 2016 presidential election since the end of the primary season, it’s worth taking stock of the degree of support Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are receiving from within their respective parties. At several times earlier this year, party coalescence seemed unlikely, or at least to the extent seen in past electoral cycles. That notion gained support from earlier polls showing subpar Democratic support for Clinton, due to holdouts from Bernie Sanders supporters, and below average Republican numbers for Trump, stemming from reticence of party elites and high socioeconomic (Republican) voters to his campaign.

For the most part, intra-party support has come close to familiar levels. Party loyalty, as expected, remains one of the strongest forces in American politics, and the two candidates have seen their overall polling numbers rise as a result. But as seen below in this brief overview of intra-party developments in the last two months in the graphs below, the trends for Clinton and Trump have been a bit uneven.

Source: HuffPost Pollster.

Source: HuffPost Pollster.

Note: The x-axes in the above graphs start with a poll that began on 6/1, and end with another poll that concluded on 8/5. The polling data used is only from Clinton-Trump head to head matchups that do not include third party candidates by name. 

Clinton sees her support from Democrats more or less consistently rise over this two-month time frame, with a larger boost coming around the time of the Democratic Convention. Trump also gathers more support from Republicans following the party’s convention, but that trend towards party unity halts thereafter, likely a repercussion of the various controversies in which Trump has recently been embroiled.

If Trump hopes to rebound and make the election competitive once again, he’s best off start with pulling in members of his own party. Clinton, on the other hand, has managed to do that much more effectively, and as a result, stands in much better shape–in her polling numbers for all voters–in the post-convention landscape.

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